US semiconductor tax 100% final! Guotai Investment Credit Zhang Yongchuan: Taiwan Stock Exchange is about to get on AI Express

TIIT will hold the "New Strategy after the Trade War - New Thoughts on ETF Layout" forum today. General Manager Zhang Yongchuan said that the US semiconductor tax levy is 100% down, and Taiwan Electric, Dunghai, Chengkai and Guangda have long been in the US, which has allowed Taiwan factories to avoid the impact of semiconductor tax levy, which means that Taiwan's supply chain is about to be on AI express and continue to grow. It is optimistic that Taiwan's ETFs will benefit from the key market.

Zhang Yongchuan said that Trump officially announced that he would charge 100% tax on chip and semiconductor industries as soon as next week, but as long as the current and future companies will be in the United States, even if the factory has not yet been completed, they can be exempted from taxes as long as they promise to produce in the United States. For Taiwan Electric Power, Dung Hai, Xincai, and Guangda, these companies that have already in the United States have the opportunity to meet tax exemption conditions in the future.

Zhang Yongchuan pointed out that Google and Meta have recently announced their expansion of capital expenditures. The bottom line is precisely because they see the actual effect of AI on production capacity. Microscope claims that 30% of the programming has been invested in AI. Now the impact of the assessment tax is limited, the market AI demand is clear, and the related industries are estimated to have an upward trend of at least 5 to 10 years. We are optimistic about the future development of Taiwan's supply chain.

Zhang Yongchuan shared that from the perspective of investors, it is both a challenge and an opportunity. ETFs include multiple components and can diversify risks. It is recommended that you pay attention to high dividend ETFs with better defense, such as Guotai Yongsheng High Dividend (00878), or market capitalization ETFs, such as Guotai Taiwan Leader 50 (00922), which are expected to benefit from the key market.

Chen Yuren, head of the Quantitative and Index Office of the Pacific Investment Corporation, said that the US semiconductor industry has a 100% tax base. Although it has no impact on the supply chain of factories in the United States, there are still other companies that have not yet made plans in the United States. Combined with the appreciation of the new Taiwan currency, it is estimated that Taiwan's GDP this year will reach 0.4~1.6%, while other companies in Taiwan will move the board and develop towards Southeast Asia and Europe.

Chen Yuren pointed out that the US has a certain bottom for taxes and semiconductor taxes, but it is difficult for the Taiwan Stock Exchange to break through a new high, because the trend of stocks in the first half of the year has ended and has even reached the peak season of the Christmas season. It is estimated that the stock will not start again until the first quarter of next year. Therefore, the overall situation will be slightly cold in the second half of the year. Combined with the US interest rate cut cycle, it means that the economy is not good. In addition, the US mid-term choice will also bring about uncertainty in policy.

Chen Yuren believes that the overall financial market fluctuations are still unstable, but the Taiwan Stock Exchange ETF code is clean and will switch to large-value stocks in the second half of the year. Because small and medium-sized stocks are easily affected by market fluctuations, it is recommended that if ordinary investors want to participate in the growth of the stock market, investment should be long-term and enter and exit in a relatively short-term. Choosing continuous investment with the potential for growth will make it more important to be able to hold it and hold it for a long time.

Chen Yuren suggested that investors should make good use of relatively balanced market capitalization ETFs with high dividend ETFs to mix investment strategies to create a combination of attacking and retreating and defense, using 00878 as a defensive position for investment combinations, and 00922 provides an attacking position for capital gains, which is suitable for investors who are optimistic about the Taiwan Stock Exchange to enter the market.

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